This story is part of a series under the theme "2020 Vision: Bridge to the future." All stories in the series were published inour Living Here magazine on Sunday, Sept. 30.
Burgers, tacos and pizza have long dominated menus in Tallahassee restaurants, and that may never change. It’s unlikely we’ll be eating fried grasshoppers anytime soon in the Big Bend, but we can expect changes in the culinary scene as we look to 2020 and beyond.
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Many of these changes have already taken root. There’s already more emphasis on fast casual dining instead of fast food. You can get meals delivered more quickly from more places. We’re eating more diverse dishes. And there is a greater emphasis on healthier food — even McDonald’s salads now feature baby kale.
As for the future, “events around the world and in our society influence what we eat,” said food scientist Neil James, dean of academic programs for the College of Agriculture and Food Services at Florida A&MUniversity. Those influences can include tariffs, trade, immigration, technology and the environment, he said.
For an idea of what we might expect in the future, here are some projections and insight from culinary sources in Tallahassee:
Delivering more options
It’s 7 p.m., you’re home late from work, the kids need help with homework and you forgot to defrost the chicken. No worries. Your next meal is as close as your smartphone — and your choices go well beyond a pepperoni pizza. Delivery isn’t a new trend but it’s expected to explode in coming years.
“We can have just about anything we want delivered to us,” said Liz Sniegocki, national media relations manager for the delivery service, Bite Squad. “Online delivery and mobile apps are driving trends and helping people to buy back their time.”
Morgan Stanley Research projects that “the total U.S. food delivery market could grow to as much as $210 billion over the long term, from around $11 billion today.”
Whether you’re craving a vegan salad bowl, Filipino pork adobo or strawberry ice cream, as well as the usual favorites, you can get it delivered in Tallahassee.
Bite Squad and Uber Eats, an offshoot of the driver-for-hire app, entered the Tallahassee market in the summer of 2017. The large delivery chains are replacing smaller, local services. BiteSquad acquired Penny Delivers on June 1, for instance, and now delivers to about 180 restaurants. Uber Eats delivers to 128 restaurants.
Technology is bound to boost the delivery business. Sniegocki said analytics already help determine the quickest routes from restaurant to diner.
But the delivery trend brings pros and cons for businesses, said Nam Vu, owner of the restaurant, Arepana. “These services typically collect between 20 to 30 percent of the sale,” he said. “Most family owned restaurants only have net profits of 10 to 15 percent.” As for pros, he said, the services can help reach more potential customers, restaurant owners don’t have to deal with hiring and keeping drivers and delivery can help sales on rainy days.
Meal kit services like Blue Apron, Hello Fresh and Meal Pro are getting more common, with Walmart jumping on the bandwagon. And let’s not forget the impact of delivery giant Amazon, which now owns Whole Foods.
“Amazon will have a big voice in what we eat in the future,” said James.
Convenience counts
Aside from delivery services, businesses are bound to feature more grab n’ go items.
Publix and Whole Foods are devoting more space to chopped veggies, fruits and salad combos. Food bars are flourishing at local supermarkets and who hasn’t grabbed a rotisserie chicken for a quick meal?
Starbucks has been providing quick bites for years, but more restaurants are joining the trend.
Grove Market Cafe, the new breakfast/lunch space from David and Elizabeth Gwynn, owners of Cypress and Vertigo restaurants, has launched a grab n’ go section, initially offering treats like pies, muffins and banana bread, with plans to add salads and sandwiches.
As for the future, “rising payroll costs will continue to challenge the business owner so quick-serve and grab n' go will thrive,” Gwynn said.
Ethnic cuisine
While Tallahassee may not rival big cities for its diverse dining, the city has plenty of ethnic gems with more likely to pop up in the next decade.
There’s the new Chi Chi’s Cuban eatery, with Filipino dining at Real Sarap across the street. Other more adventurous choices include El Viroleño (Salvadoran), Korean BBQ & More, Nefetari’s Fine Cuisine & Spirits (Egyptian, Mediterranean), Sahara Greek & Lebanese Cafe, Super Perros (Colombian), G&G Caribbean Restaurant and Tan’s (Indonesian and Asian).
Immigration patterns are a big influence on what ethnic restaurants open in a community, so the homelands of future residents will influence our dining world, said James.
“The status quo is changing,” said Jesse Edmunds, owner of The Hawthorn, Liberty Bar & Restaurant and El Cocinero. “It’s happening slowly, but diners are getting more adventurous.”
Tallahassee’s students are often among those adventurous diners, said Zach Weston, a Florida State University professor of food and beverage who oversees the Dedman School of Hospitality's Little Dinner Series. “Students are really open-minded about what they eat.”
You’ll certainly see lots of students packing Korean BBQ, Tallahassee’s only Korean restaurant.
The cuisine could be the next food sensation, especially with nutritionists touting the benefits of fermented foods like kimchi, said Jessica Bright McMullen, owner of the cooking school, KitchenAble.
McMullen said her classes on Korean food have been among her most popular. “I sold out one class and added another.”
Korea’s “wonderfully flavorful” Gochujang sauce, a fermented red pepper sauce, will be the next “rock star in the food world,” noted McMullen. Harissa, the North African hot sauce, is also a new favorite.
The ability to order exotic products online makes it easier for more restaurants and home cooks to try something new, she said.
“Our world is getting smaller,” said McMullen. “We’re able to enjoy and experience things that were unheard of a generation ago.”
Will local restaurants rule?
Chefs and restaurateurs are cautiously optimistic that the local restaurant scene will blossom.
“There is a certain energy here that wasn’t here before,” said Weston.
Matt Thompson, managing partner of For The Table Hospitality group, said “there used to be a chain restaurant on every corner, but there are now more independently owned food and beverage concepts.”
Tallahassee has “pockets of restaurant destinations” that are growing, including College Town, Bannerman Crossing, Midtown and the Northeast. “And the southside is starting to sprout up,” said Thompson, whose restaurants include Madison Social, Centrale, Township, SoDough, Happy Motoring and Magda’s coffee and ice cream shop (bringing the urban cereal milk trend here).
The development going up around Cascades Park is likely to be another dining destination, bringing a cluster of restaurants and bars geared to the 25- to 35-year-old crowd, said Nick Lowe, Northwest Florida Regional Director for the Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association.
He expects to see a similar trend downtown. "By and large Tallahassee is a great market for independents," Lowe said.
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Gwynn said “supporting local is a big draw yet franchises thrive” in Tallahassee. To move the dining scene to the next level, he believes the city could use some “new blood and risk takers.”
Restaurants may also take on a more custom approach.
Gwynn sees “individuals’ diets and food allergies becoming more and more of a widely accepted practice that will require restaurants to adapt.”
Back on the farm
The term farm-to-table has become overused, but a true commitment to local, fresh ingredients appears to be on the rise.
“The farm-to-table movement is trendy yet it’s really old-fashioned and should be intuitive to us,” said McMullen, who grew up on a small farm in North Carolina.
Locally, there are some signs of progress.
Backwoods Crossing’s array of crops include eggplant, cucumbers, okra, tomatoes, zucchini, squash and melons growing on nearly four acres of land just outside its door, enabling the restaurant to offer just-picked produce on its menu.
Edmunds has recently partnered with farmer David Newman at Liberty Farms so his three restaurants will have access to fresh fruits and vegetables plus harder-to-find items like husk cherries, the edible flower nasturtium and lavender.
If you don’t have time to visit Tallahassee’s farmers’ markets, check out the Red Hills Online Farmers Market, which offers access to products from 60 farmers in the Tallahassee and surrounding areas, said online manager Karen Goodlett.
Check out the available produce, meats, cheese, baked goods and honey online from 8 a.m. Sundays to 6 a.m. Wednesdays, then place an order that can be picked up at one of seven hubs on Thursday afternoon, or delivered for a small fee.
We’ll need all that produce. The number of vegans and vegetarians are increasing, especially among millennials, but most consumers will be eager for veggie-centric dishes, the experts said. Expect more plant-based burgers and vegetable-and-grain bowls. In fact, the most popular entree ordered in Tallahassee in 2018 has been the “regular” bowl (with veggies and meat, grains) at Vale Food Co. in College Town, said Bite Squad’s Sniegocki.
As for other sources of protein, keep in mind that The Lure in St. Petersburg already features jerk grasshopper tacos when the bugs are available (who knew that was a problem?).
Push for sustainability
The United States wasted 133 billion pounds and $161 billion worth of food in 2010, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, so no wonder there will be more advocacy for sustainable sourcing and production.
"Attitudes are shifting and consumers are holding businesses more accountable," said Gabrielle Maynard, coordinator of FSU’s Food Recovery Network.
She sees a trend toward sustainable businesses that make the most of natural resources, reduce steps in the food chain, take part in composting and recycling and are environmentally responsible. Restaurant and food trends will hopefully include getting rid of plastic straws and Styrofoam, Maynard said.
Look for a greater fixation on “traceability,” due to both environmental and health concerns, said FAMU’s James. “We should be able to find out what fish we are eating, where it was caught and how it was handled.”
The next decade will certainly bring food challenges.
“An exponentially growing population and climate change will play a huge role,” said Gwynn. “Will our protein sources change from common ones like chicken and fish to edible bugs and plant-based? We'll see.”
10 trends at a glance
• Experts project that plant-based proteins will be dominant in the next decade, with an increase in veganism and vegetarianism.
• The food and restaurant industry will focus more on customers’ dietary concerns.
• More companies will explore indoor vertical farming.
• There will be a greater demand for locally sourced ingredients, with more transparency in restaurants.
• Edible bugs, like grasshoppers, could be appearing on more menus.
• Consumers will be more fixated on sustainable products, composting and food sourcing.
• Delivery services will explode, with more emphasis on convenience while consumers will also be eager for healthier fare.
• Politics — tariffs, trade, immigration — will be have a big impact on food trends.
• Food prices are bound to get higher.
• There will be a growing interest in exotic spices, sauces and ethnic cuisines.
